27, July 2015

Fundamental analysis

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

At the end of the last week the pair EUR/USD increased amid the pair EUR/GBP growth and amid the UK weak macroeconomic statistics. Then the pair consolidated.

By the end of the day the pair GBP / USD had decreased after the June UK retail sales publication - the index decreased by 0.2%. The pound fell after the retail sales weak data output. The data were disappointing. They negated the British retailers' consortium and the British Industry Confederation earlier studies. In general the news is not good, but the consumer spending trend is still growing. In fact, the retail sales showed an increase by 4% y/y while consumer confidence is at the 15-year high, real wages rose up by almost 3% y/y while the employment continues to rise. So consumer spending is not in danger. On the contrary, the United States pleased traders with the positive jobless claims. However the pair pound/dollar slightly corrected.

During the day the pair USD/JPY was trading in a flat amid the world leading stock markets sales which hindered the US dollar's growth. Nevertheless the pair decreased by the end of the day.

After the US jobless claims publication we observed the commodity market sales which is also a positive factor for the US currency as the raw materials cost is denominated in dollars.