25, September 2013

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

Traditionally volatility increases in the markets in September and October and often trends are set at this time. The current September puts pressure on the dollar. It was due to the fact that the head of the U.S. central bank, Ben Bernanke announced last week his decision not to cut the asset purchase program, so the U.S. stocks rose to new highs in 2013.

However, such a decision can not conclusively say that the dollar will fall. Taking into account that the U.S. Congress is in a new dispute about how the government will be financed and what should be the debt ceiling,

Americans benefit from having a weak dollar (less money is needed to repay the debts). In October they will make a decision about the national debt ceiling, and after that there will be a chance to relax again. In October, we will again ask a fortune-teller: Will the Fed reduce the easing program or not, and if it will, by how much. Therefore, it is too early to speak clearly about the weakening of the U.S. dollar.

The US dollar will be under pressure as long as stocks rise. But with the decrease of "easy money", the sale of the shares will show a stronger correction than the last time, and near the end of the year drop in shares may increase, and the U.S. dollar may get stronger.