25, August 2014

Fundamental analysis

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

The majors were traded in a horizontal flat. Despite the positive macroeconomic data from the United States – the EUR/USD finished last week up 0.15% quotes. The traders began to take profit on the short positions after coming to a strong support level of 1.3242, which supported a moderate demand for the single currency. The France and Germany industrial sector PMI has shown a mixed data - the first figure came out worse than the forecasted median, having dropped to its lowest level since March 2013,  the second component was also decreased, but the total value was better than the market expectations. The negative reports confirm the euro area economy weakness and now it is not necessary to think about a strong technical correction in the euro/dollar.

The retail sales in the UK will not be able to provide a strong support for the bulls, despite the GBP/USD oversold. The final index came out worse than the consensus forecast of 0.1% and the traders rather sluggishly responded to these data.

The bulls are tired of the USD/JPY growth and the trading was rather calmly.

The American stock index S&P500 renewed its historical max, which supported the demand for shares in other continents. In this regard, the bears do not have a chance to implement a technical correction and the dollar/yen consolidated.