24, November 2014

Fundamental analysis

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

There was a flat within the major pairs the last week. The euro sharply fell at the end of the week. The pair EUR/USD was not able to test the 25th figure and at the moment of quotations reached the mark of 1.2555 despite the negative France and Germany manufacturing sector PMI release and then we saw a sharp decrease. The US inflation release came out slightly better than traders had expected, though it did not bring special dividends for the US dollar. The CRB commodity showed a moderately upward trend that put some pressure on the dollar.

The UK positive retail sales release for October encouraged traders to open long positions within the pair GBP/USD. The index came out at the level of 0.8%, instead of the expected 0.4%. The British pound reached the level of 1.5735, then bulls began to close their "longs" and we saw a technical rebound below 57th figure. The US CPI release increased the US and the UK negative yield spreads that restrained bulls from the long positions retention.

The first time for the last few months Japan issued the positive trade balance. The yen devaluation will reflect positively on exporters and as a result we have seen the negative balance reduction by 250 billion yen. However, the traders ignored the positive data and we observed the strong quotations growth to the level of 118.99. Then traders fixed profits on the "longs" and at the moment of the quotation the pair USD/JPY reached the level of 117.75 where it formed a consolidation.