23, December 2015

Fundamental analysis

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)The market attention was focused on the US statistics. The third quarter final GDP data was expected not be revised downwards and would remain at the same level as it was noted in the second release. The strong labor market helped the private consumption to increase which is a welcome factor for the US economy. However the data came out at he level of 2% against the forecasted 1,9%. The secondary market home sales data can also be a pleasant surprise. The November mortgage lending volume was 1.26% compared to the previous month that indicates that the real estate sales increase, both primary and secondary markets. However the data came out at the level of 4,47M against the forecasted 5,35%. The pair euro/dollar showed a growth by the end of the trades.

The key factors point out to the downtrend continuation. Firstly, the US and the UK government bond yield are expanding which increases the investments’ attractiveness into the US assets and it will contribute to the dollar demand. Secondly, the Brent crude is now trading near the 11-year low which is also a positive factor for the US dollar as the raw materials cost denominated in dollars. The pair GBP/USD decreased by the en of the trades.

The pair USD/JPY declined again, having continued last Friday's decline, although at a slower pace. Initially, all Japanese economic sectors activity index report which grew by 1.0% after decline by 0.2% supported the yen.