23, September 2014

Fundamental analysis

 EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

The American dollar has significantly strengthened its position against its main competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trades with the maximum levels for the last 4 years. Against the empty macroeconomic calendar the EUR/USD decreased after the last week correction growth. The traders actively sold the euro, expending the differential returns on the 10 –year American and the German state bonds. It should be noted that the short euro positions were observed along the entire market.

As the old trading rule says «buy the rumor, sell the fact”. 55.3% of voters in the Scotland referendum opposed the independence and against this background we observed the GBP/USD long positions closing. Prior to the official results announcement the British currency voting quotes reached the level of 1.6523 at the moment, after which we observed a sharp pound rise and against this negative background the «cable» has lost 0.68%.

The Japan continues to disappoint the traders by a negative macroeconomic statistics. This time we got the index activity weak report in all economic sectors which showed a reduction of 0.2% in July. This indicator decline has been observed for 2 months in a row that points to the service and the manufacturing difficulties. Against this negative background the bullish rally for the USD/JPY continued and at the moment the prices reached the level of 109.45. The last time the dollar rose so high in September 2008.