20, March 2015

Fundamental analysis

 EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

The trading week central event was news when the FED announced its two-day meeting monetary policy results. The weak macroeconomic statistics does not leave the FED any choice but not to rush with the interest rate growth.

The Fed lowered its forecast to the current year average rate: 0.625% instead of 1.125% as it was expected in December 2014. The GDP and inflation forecasts for the next three years also have been decreased. The FOMC governor Janet Yellen pointed out to the strong dollar as the main reason for the weak exports. Against this background, we have seen massive longs closure within the US dollar and the main dollar competitors’ strong growth. However the dollar recovered at the yesterday’s trades.

The Eurozone has not published any important reports. Of course the US Federal Reserve accompanying statement will contribute to the dynamics. But now we should not count on the euro substantial growth because of the fact that the difference in the regulators’ sentiments is too high. The trades on the EUR/USD closed with a decrease.

The UK has not published any important report. It should also be noted that the salary average level data showed a decline, suggesting the inflation pressure further decrease, although, the pound has showed its growth. The growth was short-term and the pair pound/dollar decreased again.