20, February 2015

Fundamental analysis

 EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

The downward pressure on the USD was intensified after the not so encouraging economic indicators publication; taking into consideration the Fed Open Market Commission meeting minutes’ soft tone, the first interest rates growth is likely to be postponed until June. The US securities followed the dollar example; the 10-year bond yields fell from 2.15% to 2.08%. But surprisingly the protocols soft tone only worsened the situation, the main factor of exchange rate dynamics are negotiations between Greece and the EU.

The pair EUR / USD rebounded to 1.1415 after the Fed meeting minute’s publication, but it was unable to find enough buyers and moved into the consolidation phase. Even at the last moment the agreement between Greece and the EU can be the catalyst that will trigger the pair EUR/USD correction. The pair GBP/USD is stable near the more than one-month high against the US dollar as the US dollar remains under pressure. The pair USD/JPY fell to after the Fed news and it rebounded upwards to 118.96. The pair weakly responded to the favorable data on the trade volume changes and the Ministry of Finance week report.