19, August 2013

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

According to Reuters U.S. economic statistics confirmed the assumption that the FED plans to curtail redemption of government bonds. The volume of industrial production index in the country in July remained at the level of the previous month: reduction of production in the manufacturing industry and the decline in public services are balanced by an increase in output in the mining industry. Production figures of American construction companies in August have already grown to an eight-year-old pre-crisis values on strong consumer demand for new homes as well as on the secondary real estate and high interest rates on mortgage loans.

Industrial production in July did not change, the index recorded a 0.0% m / m after a 0.2% m / m previously, and in the annual comparison 1.4% y / y 1.8% y / y in May, the processing sector also noted the decline -0.1% m / m. Philly Fed report was equally weak - the index of general business activity in the manufacturing sector fell to 9.3 in August from 19.8 in July, while the forecast was 15.0, and components of the indicator indicating the prospects fell - new orders index to 5.3 against 10.2 in July, and employment to 3.5 from 7.7 last month.

The dynamics of inflation in the euro area is projected negative - Final evaluation of consumer price index (CPI) may show -0.5% m / m, +1.6% after +0.1% m / m, +1.6% y / y The base CPI in July, probably also fell, +1.1% y / y vs. 1.2% y / y. Good data for External Relations and weak inflation can balance opinion. However, in this case a great risk of weakening of the euro is seen as inflation is now more influential factor.