19, February 2013

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

Last week the pair was under pressure, as it was expected, after the weekly candle "bearish engulfing".

Euro is slowly felt the support in the area of 1.3315, as the appetite to risk is gradually returning to traders.

The nearest support can become the previous consolidation area 1.3315/20.

One reason of the currency fall was rumors that the pricey EUR hurts export very much. We believe that such comments can affect trader’s mood. If the selling pressure continues, the break of level1.3315 may send the price to 1.3250. Also, there is strong support in the long-term bullish trend line 1.3095; hence testing it will be crucial for the future currency movements. Bullish correction is likely to meet some resistance at 1.3400.

Economical news:

Economists have not almost changed their forecasts for U.S. economic growth in 2013, but they expect a more active recruitment.

Survey of 46 economists conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia in the 1st quarter, showed that the consensus forecast for GDP growth this year is 1.9% compared to November's forecast of 2.0%.

It is expected that real GDP growth in the 1st and 2nd quarter will grow only by 2.1% and 2.3% respectively. According to the forecast, the GDP growth in the 3rd quarter will accelerate to 2.6% in the 4th quarter will be 2.5%.

This divergence in growth rates is likely to reflect expectations of the negative impact of the tightening of fiscal policy, which takes effect at the beginning of this year, and whicj negative consequences later should be diminished.

In 2014, economists expect real GDP growth to 2.8% from November's forecast of 2.7%.
Economists raised their forecast to increase the number of jobs as well.