18, December 2015

Fundamental analysis

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

The Fed raised the key interest rates for the first time since 2006. The GDP and the unemployment long term forecasts were moderately revised towards the positive direction, on the other hand, the inflation rate was moderately revised towards the negative direction. The US dollar revaluation had a negative impact on exporters, so that the third quarter negative trade balance amounted to 133.7 billion dollars which is 6.21% more than in the same period in 2014. The US published the number of jobless claims report for the last week. The data came out at the level of 271 thousand; the forecasted median was 275 thousand.

The IFO Institute published the December Germany business sentiment index which came out at the level of 108.7. The pair euro/dollar showed a decrease.

The British currency has ignored the inflation and the employment moderately positive data. The retail sales forecasted medians were higher in November that supported the pound. The October average earnings report showed the growth rate slowdown which is a negative factor for the retail sector. The UK consumer confidence index fell to 1p in November which had been the lowest level for five months. There was a decrease in the pair GBP/USD.

The US and the Japanese government bond yields have increased after the FOMC decision to raise interest rates which increased the investment attractiveness into the US assets and contributed to the dollar demand. The low energy prices have forced the Bank of Japan to revise its inflation forecasts. The Japanese November trade balance report has already been published: 0.0 trillion yen from 0.20 trillion yen. The pair dollar/yen was growing.