18, September 2014

Fundamental analysis

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

The EUR/USD is still between 28th and 29th figures. The Germany business climate release from the ZEW institute could not cause the strong reaction on the market - the index was better than the forecasted medians, but we observe the final value decrease for 9 consecutive months.

The similar euro area index showed the significant decrease which confirms the negative trend. The bond market also took the bears side - the10-year Treasuries American and German bonds yields differential is still expanding which is a positive factor for the dollar.

The GBP/USD was under pressure - the CPI release showed the inflation rate reduction to 1.5% y/y which is the negative factor for the monetary policy tightening. However, after the United States producer price index publication the pound was able to regain the lost ground. The PPI report came out a little worse than the forecasted medians that cheered the bulls to open the long positions.

The bears won the minimal victory on the USD/JPY in the dispute with the bulls. The BOJ head H. Kuroda confirmed that the yen weakening had not harmed the Japanese economy, however, he made it clear to the market that the exchange rates deviation from the economic fundamentals was extremely undesirable.