18, March 2016

Fundamental analysis

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

The dollar strengthened while waiting for the Fed decisions. However, the dollar sharply turned around and had fallen across the market after the meeting.

As expected, the Fed left the interest rates unchanged, in the range of 0.25% - 0.50%. Still it has plans to make two rate increases instead of four in the current year. The GDP forecast for 2016 was revised downwards to 2.2% from 2.4% previously. Even if the FOMC raises the interest rates only twice this year, the yield differential of USA government bonds shall expand and investors will have no choice but to buy dollars. Moreover, the "risk appetite" increase will put pressure on the euro as a funding currency. The trades on the pair euro/dollar closed with a growth.

The Bank of England meeting results announcement was the key event of Thursday. The UK 10-year government bonds yield declined by 21 basis points since the last meeting of the monetary regulator, indicating a decline in inflation expectations. The BoE kept the interest rates unchanged. The pair pound/dollar strengthened on the Thursday trades.

The market again began taking into account the different direction of the monetary policies of the BoJ and the Fed. One Central Bank softened its monetary policy against a background of low inflationary expectations. On the contrary, the second one plans to increase the tightening, as the core CPI indicator reached the level of 2.3% in annual terms for the first time since May 2012. The pair dollar/yen fell.