18, January 2016

Fundamental analysis

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

The market was quite volatile last Friday, still in general it tends to the dollar strengthening. The heterogeneous movement was mainly due to the stock and commodity markets instability. Besides the market sentiments, the currency dynamics was influenced by the European and the UK Central Banks while the macro data remained practically unnoticed.

The German 2015 GDP is encouraging. The GDP growth was 1.7% due to the personal consumption, the government spending and the investment growth. The positive data have helped to reduce the yields differential on the US and Germany government bonds. The Eurozone published the November trade balance. The data came in at the level 23,6B. By the end of the trades the pair euro/dollar decreased.

The debt market reacted to the British monetary authorities statements by the government bonds yields lowering in relation to its US and Germany counterparts. That fact, of course, reduces the investments attractiveness to the British assets. The Bank of England posted the Credit Conditions Survey. The pair pound/dollar fell by the end of the trades.

The demand for risky assets keeps growing which is a negative factor for the Japanese yen as a funding currency. One of the last Friday key events was the USA retail sales report (-0,1% against the forecasted 0,2%) where the producer prices (on the forecasted level of 0,2%) and the Michigan University consumer confidence index (93,3 against the forecasted 93,0) were announced. The pair dollar/yen closed the trades with a decrease.