17, October 2014

Fundamental analysis

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

Yesterday we observed a high volatility in all financial markets due to the credit markets turbulence. All major global bond yields have sharply fallen, indicating the possible deflationary collapse in the short term. The US 10-year bond treasuries fell to the level of 1.86% that caused long dollar positions rapid elimination. Despite the fact that the German bonds also updated the yearly lows yields – the pair EUR / USD has sharply increased fearing that the Fed will not close the QE-3 this month.

The pair GBP / USD is still under pressure, despite the fact that it has completed the third trading day in positive area. The August unemployment rate reduced to the level of 6% in the UK and the moderate salary increase is a positive signal for the economy. If it was not for the lower inflationary pressure, traders would have an excellent opportunity to start a "bull rally." However, the low CPI is a strong deterrent and against this background the pound set a fresh low during the day for the past 11 months. The US and UK 10-year bond yields strongly expanded on Wednesday that was a negative factor for the British currency.

The pair USD/JPY came under a powerful sales wave on Wednesday amid the drastic US 10-year bond yields reduction. The US inflation expectations have weakened with the sales on the stock markets that point out to the possible deflationary spiral in the world's largest economy. In the light of this traders bought the yen.