17, September 2014

Fundamental analysis

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

The Forex market week start was passed within the narrow ranges amid the important macroeconomic releases publication lack. The Dollar index basket (USDX) has been in the horizontal flat for the 5 consecutive trading days which clearly indicates the strong market driver's absence. The EUR/USD fell slightly after the July euro zone trade balance report publication. We observed the July trade surplus decrease despite the significant euro weakening.

The GBP/USD is still not feeling confident amid the political crisis in the UK. The referendum in the Scotland on the secession from the United Kingdom will be held on Thursday 18 September and many traders are afraid to open the long pound positions in spite of the strong pound "oversold". The 10-year American and British bonds yields differential was widened in the “Treasuries”’ favor which is also the deterrent for the pound sterling strengthening.

The USD/JPY was consolidated near the 107th figure. The bears attempted to develop the downward movement amid the negative United States industrial production release, but their attempts were unsuccessful. The August industrial production volume was decreased by 0.1% which is significantly worse than the forecasted medians assumed the growth rate of 0.4%. However, the bulls returned to the market and were able to regain some of the lost positions after the quotations decline which tells us about the uptrend strength.