17, July 2014

EUR/USD Fundamental analysis

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

We could see the multidirectional majors movement the other day. The negative ZEW business climate release in Germany coupled with euro/pound cross-course sales cheered the "bears" to open the short positions on the EUR/USD. The ZEW index fell to 27.1 points in July, showing the lowest level since December 2012. If the investors and analysts look pessimistic at the eurozone's leading economy it means that the region problems are really strong. In the U.S. trading session midst Fed head held the speech in Congress. Janet Yellen still adheres to the loose monetary policy assuring market participants that the inflation rise in the recent months should not be regarded as the uptrend beginning. The investors expected such comments so the pair started selling fast due to Ms. Yellen performance.

The GBP/USD was able to breakthrough the two-week range due to the June CPI index positive release. The June UK inflation showed growth to the level of 1.9% year on year, which triggered the "bulls rally" on the British currency. The inflationary pressures intensified the market participants' expectations on the earlier BoE monetary - credit policy tightening amid the pound significantly strengthened its position in relation to the dollar.

The BoJ head Mr. Kuroda speaking at a press-conference after a meeting on monetary - credit policy said he expected the economic growth return to the positive territory in the 3rd quarter. It was also indicated that the price current growth seemed to be well balanced and there is no reason for a strong dollar strengthening now. After Fed head statements completion we saw the increase in the U.S. 10 - year Treasuries yield, which also supported the moderate demand for the U.S. dollar.