15, December 2014

Fundamental analysis

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

The November US retail sales release returned everything on its places - the US dollar finished last week in the "green zone" along with the stock markets. The pair EUR/USD closed the trading with the price decrease by 0.5%. The US retail sector sales in November increased by 0.7% and in addition it was revised the October release towards growth. This report confirms the US economy increased strength that immediately reflected on the euro quotations. Nevertheless, the euro increased on the Friday trades.

In the bulls and bears dispute within the pair GBP/USD no one won at the end of the trading week. The UK 10-year bond yields have grown by 0.3% with the profit-taking on the long positions within the cross-rate EUR/GBP that did not allow the pound to develop a strong downward trend after the US positive retail for November. The pair is consolidating.

The Japan negative macroeconomic statistics and the US positive data forced bears within the pair USD/JPY to surrender. The two reports came out worse than traders had expected - the change in machinery and equipment orders as well as the service sector activity index. In this context, we receive the first wake-up call for an economic growth in the 4th quarter of this year.

On the contrary, the US pleased traders with the strong retail sales data that in November rose by 0.7%. This release with the leading indicators from ISM points out to the strong economic growth for the last three months of the year. The US and Japan stock exchanges have responded positively to the strong retail sector sales data and against this background, the pair dollar/yen started a consolidation.