15, March 2016

Fundamental analysis

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

The Central Banks will be the focus of our attention this week. The BOJ, the Fed and the Bank of England shall announce their verdict. Even though we do not expect surprises, the banks' statements can still cause volatility. The Fed's possible statements will be the main driver in the beginning of the week.

Last week, the ECB President M. Draghi's statement about the absence of need for new measures provoked risk aversion and had pressured the dollar. However, traders managed to focus on new large-scale ECB’s incentives which increased the demand for the dollar at the end of the trading week. The rates will remain at the current or lower levels until the target inflation level is reached, according to Liikanen's words (ECB representative), which added some optimism. That brought the market some calmness, as well as giving the investors the hope that the European regulator had further plans. The pair euro/dollar fell by the end of the trades on Monday.

The UK total trade deficit narrowed to £ -3.459 billion, even this favorable data made no impression on the GBP/USD, and did not help the price to grow. Still if the dollar came under a wave of selling, the pound strengthened. However the trades on the pair pound/dollar closeв with a decrease on Monday.

The pair USD/JPY continues the trades in a flat.