14, May 2013

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

The weakness of the euro zone economy is likely to find a confirmation in the GDP data in the 1st quarter. GDP will be published this week. The first assessment of the economy state is expected to point to the fact that the eurozone is still in a recession.

Economists predict that the euro zone GDP contraction in Q1 will be not as significant as in the 4th quarter of 2012, but it is slightly encouraging.

"Preliminary estimate of GDP growth in the 1st quarter to confirm that the euro zone economy in early 2013 was not in such a bad state as in the 4th quarter, when it fell by 0.6% - Capital Economics analysts said in a weekly note. - However, there is little indication that the economy showed any significant recovery. "

ZEW data for May will be published this week. According to the forecast, investor confidence has risen after declining in April.

After falling to level 1.2930 early April the single currency is attempting to roll back the current 1.2960/65 area, although the desire for risk remains.

Camilla Sutton from Scotiabank, emphasizes neutral outlook, stating that "the graphics change from buying to selling, but the signals are not yet specific enough to open shorts. Breakthrough 200-day at 1.2992, 1.2955 at the bottom of the range, increase the downward pressure."