13, March 2014

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

Yesterday’s again passed quietly amid the absence of significant U.S. macroeconomic data. Significant Retail Sales in the U.S. will be released only on Thursday. Optimism index in small business from the U.S. NFIB sharply fell down in February to the lowest level in almost over a year, to 91.4 compared to 94.1 in January, against the growth expectations. Wholesale Sales in January grew up by 0.6% m/m, exceeding forecasts - while Retail Sales fell down by 1.9% m/m, against the growth expectations.

The Australian dollar demonstrated the greatest decrease in the U.S. dollar. AUD fell down to near-week low to the U.S. currency amid the weak Business Confidence and Business Conditions in Australia. According to the National Australia Bank (NAB), index of business confidence in Australia fell down in February to 7 compared to 9 in January, but is still slightly above the trend levels.

On Tuesday the pound moderately decreased being pressured by BOE’s Bean’s statements when he warned that further growth of the pound may counteract all the efforts to stimulate the export and will unbalance the economy. The industrial production in the UK in January rose by 0.1% m/m, less than it was expected ( 0.2 %) - at the time, as the manufacturing output increased by 0.4 % m/m , exceeding the forecast of 0.3 %. In February the Retail Sales Monitor from BRC fell down by 1% y/y (minimum growth in nearly over a year ), against the growth expectations. The UK Trade Balance publication postponed to Friday on March 14th.

Yen barely reacted to the Bank of Japan meeting, but then rose up amid the stock markets falling. The Bank of Japan left the monetary policy unchanged, as well as general economy estimation. The Bank of Japan lowered its exports estimations, but also raised up the investment and industrial production estimation. BOJ Kuroda did not say anything about the yen’s strength and the need for further easing of a monetary policy in response to the imminent introduction of a sales tax that may be positive for the yen.