13, February 2014

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

The dollar had slight fluctuations, but with almost unchanged index during the day. When assessing the labour market we should consider not only the level of unemployment. According to the number of indicators labour market isn’t stable yet and its recovery is very far from complete. Yellen indicated that the Fed would decline the threshold unemployment benchmark below 6.5%, as it had been suggested by some representatives of the Central Bank. Interest rates will remain near zero well past the point when unemployment falls below a previous threshold of 6.5%. It all was mentioned earlier. Relatively new was only the remark about the possible halt of the QE3 decline in the case of significant changes in economic prospects.

The dollar strengthened versus the yen on the background of the stock markets growth – the DJIA index grew on Tuesday by 1.22%; futures on the Nikkei grew more than by 1.5%. Markets in Japan were closed on Tuesday to celebrate the occasion. The euro had slight fluctuations within the day, while the pound strengthened before the publication of the Bank of England on Wednesday quarterly inflation report, due to the positive statistics.

The British retail consortium (BRC) survey showed that retailers in the UK had seen in January a very large increase in sales. Monitoring of retail sales from BRC increased in January by 3.9% compared to the previous year – it has been the fastest rate of growth for almost three years. Nationwide retail sales, released on February 21, may be strong.

The Australian dollar grew to a 4-week maximum against the dollar. The New Zealand dollar also grew against the US dollar following the Australian dollar after the report on the trust in business circles of Australia.