11, November 2014

Fundamental analysis

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

The week beginning was noted by the some dollar recovery against all majors. The Friday trade results were not on the US dollar side. The dollar fell against all of its major competitors after the US employment data partially met our expectations. In general, the employment report result was not bad - the unemployment rate fell in October to 5.8% against 5.9% in September as we had not expected the changes and the number of part-time workers and those who have no hope in finding a job, reduced by 0.3%. The new September workplace data was revised upwards. However, the October new workplace growth came out much worse than it had been expected amounting 214 thousand instead of 233 thousand that confused the market and provoked the US dollar sales.

Moreover, it seems that the technical factors have put some pressure on the dollar as the levels where the main pairs are now are distinguished by the strong support/resistance which with the obvious dollar overbought was able to increase the profit fixation on the previous open long positions within the dollar.

With regard to the dollar perspectives, the less strong job growth has not changed the market preferences and the "bullish" attitude towards the dollar. However, the absence of important events in the US as well as in other regions can support the correction that began last Friday and then the week trades will be in ranges.