11, June 2015

Fundamental analysis

 EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

We had a multidirectional trend yesterday still the day the EUR/USD finished with an increase. The pair GBP/USD had decreased in spite of the UK April positive trade balance. However the pair increased by the end of the day. The pair USD/JPY had grown upwards amid the Tokyo stock exchange sales which contributed to the carry trade transactions closing and the demand for the Japanese yen. Then the pair sharply fell.

The US dollar keeps strengthening – the Treasury two-years bond yields which reflect investors' expectations about the Fed interest rates may show a growth above the level of 0.75%. The current profitability level is 0.71% and therefore it is quite difficult to count on the dollar bullish sentiment. The May US retail sales positive report can change the situation, we expect the report today.

The US Federal Reserve meeting will be held a week later there on June 16-17. However, some analytics believe that even at this meeting the US central bank will dare to start its monetary policy tightening. Still markets are hoping that the Federal Reserve governor Janet Yellen will give a hint at the end of the press conference when to wait for this event.