10, December 2014

Fundamental analysis

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

The US dollar was under pressure amid the partial profit taking on long positions - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 89.14. From all the published macroeconomic releases we should pay attention to the Germany industrial production report that showed an increase by 0.2% in October. The German and the US Treasuries bond yields have once again expanded, indicating the bearish sentiment presence within the major currency pairs.

The pair GBP/USD repeated the pair EUR/USD fate we observed profit-taking on short positions. The pound strengthened namely on technical factors – there was no fundamental prerequisites for the quotations growth. On the contrary, the negative UK and the US 10-year bond yields expansion points out to the bearish trend continuation. However, we should always understand that before the trend continuation often is a technical correction when institutional investors fix the partial profit taking and then again increase their portfolios at the attractive levels.

The final Japan GDP data for the 3rd quarter were revised into the negative region to the level of -0.5% that confirms the presence of severe structural problems in the Japan economy. Within the pair USD/JPY we observed the "longs" closure and the quotations reduction. The US and Japan stock markets showed the same weakness that also put pressure on the US dollar. The pair dollar/yen has significantly strengthened for the recent weeks and the technical correction is already overdue.