10, September 2014

Fundamental analysis

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

The new week showed the dollar strengthening resumption. Obviously, the emotions caused by the unsatisfactory labor report were forgotten and the dollar continued its rally. There wasn’t any meaningful statistics published, except the Japan news where the second GDP estimate marked the economy reduction and the market is guided by the political impulse component which stimulates the dollar popularity growth.

Another internal region influence factors were added by the Fed and ECB multi-directional policy fact that supports the dollar – the UK increases the Scotland separation probability, Japan showed top management statements disagreement about the fiscal and monetary policies prospects amid the weak economic data.

There was not published any interesting United States statistics. News that is worth attention is the NFIB small business sentiment report. It is assumed that the August optimism index in this area rose to 96.0 from 95.7. These expectations, of course, do not change their sentiment towards the dollar, but at the same time will not add the buying impulse. It is most likely that the dollar will continue strengthening under already formed sentiment influence, but it can interfere with the technical factors, as the American currency look much overbought and majors have come to serious levels of support and resistance.