09, March 2016

Fundamental analysis

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

Yen showed a growth against the dollar and the euro when the weak Chinese data revived fears about Chinese economy slowdown. This data caused demand stimulation for refuge currencies. The official data showed that the volume of Chinese exports fell on an annual basis in February by 25.4% to 126.1 million against the forecasted decline by 12.5%. The volume of imports fell by 13.8% year over year, slowing from 18.8% in January. On Tuesday, the Japanese data showed that the GDP had fallen by 1.1% in the last quarter of 2015, being revised from 1.4%.

The head of the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney spoke about the financial costs and benefits of Great Britain membership in the EU. The UK released the 2nd estimate of Eurozone GDP for the 4th quarter. This indicator (seasonally corrected) was 0.3% compared with 0.3% in the previous quarter. Experts had expected a growth rate for the last quarter by 0.3%. We expected the French trade balance with a slight improvement. The euro remained under pressure amid high expectations that the ECB will launch additional monetary policy easing.