09, January 2014

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

 EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

Data on the US trade balance were better than expected. In November the trade deficit in the USA shortened to 34.3 billion dollars; it exceeded significantly the expectations of decrease to 40 billion dollars. It was the lowest value from October 2009. The October data were also revised downwards. The export grew by 0.9% compared to the previous month, having reached the highest level in the history, while the import decreased by 1.4%.

The data can be favorable for the U.S. GDP for the 4th quarter. Baclays raised the valuation of the U.S. GDP for the 4th quarter to 3% from 1.5%, Morgan Stanley – to 3.3% from 2.4%, Goldman Sachs – to 2.8% from 2.3%. The Fed representative Williams said on Tuesday that the Fed would likely continue the bond purchase reduction and would complete this program in 2014.

The positive data from Germany supported the Euro a little bit. Retail sales grew in November after two months of decrease by 1.5% m/m, having exceeded expectations of growth by 0.5%. The number of unemployed in Germany fell in December to 15 thousand for the first time in 5 months, while decrease only of 1 thousand was expected. The French Consumer Confidence also grew in December to 85 points in comparison with 84 p. in November, while changing was not expected at all.

The pound hardly changed while the Euro fell slightly versus the dollar amid a decrease in the annual inflation rate in the Euro area in December to 0.8% from 0.9% a month earlier – while a value of the indicator without changes at the level of 0.9% was expected. In October the inflation level fell to 0.7%, which prompted the ECB to reduce the base rate in November to a historic minimum of 0.25%.