08, December 2015

Fundamental analysis

Fundamental analysis

The labor market figures signal that the Fed interest rates increase on December 16th is quite possible. 509 thousand of new jobs have been created in the US economy, the average earnings increased by 0.6%. Such data can be regarded as inflationary which allows the FED to increase the discount rate since 2006.

The pair euro/dollar has shown a relative stability after the US last week important release, feeling the support after the ECB meeting results when the regulator limited the deposit rate decrease and prolonged the buying assets program for seven months. The Germany good data supported the euro as well: the industrial orders sharply recovered by 1.8% m/m after 0.7% decrease the previous month.

The Sterling is very much pinned downwards (the price has fallen down by 3.3% for the last month). There is one week before the US Federal Reserve meeting now it is the time for an upward correction. The commodity market instability is supporting the US dollar which also had a negative impact on the pound.

Japan has reported about the average wage size increase by 0.7% in annual terms which exceeded the traders’ expectations. The wage growth is an inflation indicator which has traditionally a positive impact on the national currency. However, investors ignored the positive release - the Japanese yen strong strengthening did not happen that indicates the strong buyers presence. The pair dollar/yen showed a growth by the end of the trades.