08, October 2014

Fundamental analysis

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

We will receive the Germany industrial production data for August with the European trading session opening. The industrial orders release pointed to the reducing strong production rate and in this connection we should expect the data release to be slightly worse than the forecasted medians. The US and German 10-year bond yield moderately declined on Monday, giving the bulls a little breath of fresh air. However, we do not expect the strong euro/dollar growth – the eurozone inflation expectations remain still low.

Today traders pay a special attention to the UK industrial production report. Both the industrial orders reduction and the 3-months PMI index decline point to the data release that is worse than the consensus forecast.

The pair dollar/yen corrected near the 109th figure amid the empty macroeconomic calendar and the current levels are good for the long positions opening for two reasons. Firstly the US dollar bullish trend is still in force amid the positive macroeconomic statistics. Secondly we expect the upward trend reinforcement on the US and Japan stock markets.