07, November 2014

Fundamental analysis

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

The European Commission forecast has been revised downwards in terms of the euro zone economic growth in 2014, but the euro dynamics remained practically unchanged and then some experts have concluded that there would not be negative trends in the euro zone economy, the ECB would not apply the additional incentive measures. Perhaps it is so. However, the euro managed to lose about 100 points and before the meeting outcome announcement the market will decide whether it was a reaction to the weak service sector business activity data in October or to the significant retail sales decline or to the fact that we expect that Draghi will announce the additional measures.

The Eurozone currency updated lows. Earlier the euro managed to win back some losses amid the Narayana Kocherlakoty’s unexpected statements, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis who had paid his attention to the US inflation low rate and told the possible Fed rate increase was inappropriate in 2015. Without any doubt, Kocherlakota knows what he is speaking about, because the US economy still needs stimulation despite the vigorous officials’ speeches.

We expect quite good UK news. Besides the Bank of England meeting, traditionally held synchronously with the ECB, both the industrial production and the manufacturing industries data for September will be published, and the HBOS housing price index. It must be said that the confident speeches in the first half of the year left no trace and the market is not worried about the fact when the Bank of England plans tightening monetary policy. The market knows that it will not happen in the short term and the meeting will unlikely lead to the significant pound movements. Nevertheless, the pair is again testing new minimum mark.