06, November 2014

Fundamental analysis

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

The market has likely taken a wait–and-see position, expecting the end of the week when the reports about the European Central Bank decision and the US labor market situation will be published. In this regard, we again observed the weak lateral trade at the auction where the dollar was sold, taking profit on the previously open positions. It is clear that investors have taken a pause and quite reasonably considering the possible new targets emergence after these important events. In addition, one reason for the dollar sale could be the US economic news that showed a negative change.

The US news will issue the data that can provide guidelines on the labor market situation in October – the ADP report about the work places in the private sector is supposed to be seen with the 220 thousand increase after the earlier 213 thousand. This result will be the dollar support if it is confirmed by the forecasts. The October PMI data about the non business sector by the International Governance Institute (ISM) is less optimistic where the slowdown to 58.0 from 58.6 is possible while the overall index level is still high. It is quite possible that we will observe the range trading at the session today.