06, May 2014

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

The U.S. currency was unable to compensate the lost advantage over its main competitors, although it had every opportunity. The main event was the report on the U.S. labor market publication. Non-Farm payrolls rose to the level 288 000 in April which is the highest level since January 2012. The overall unemployment rate fell to 6.3 %. Non-Farm figure for March was also revised in the improvement direction. All these factors point to the world's largest economy recession winter full output which is favorable for an economic growth and hence for the U.S. currency.

The foreign exchange market strengthening was observed after the first hour after release publication, but then the profit came and quotes on major currency pairs have returned back to their frontiers.

Obviously, the dollar attitudes change could be caused by the labor report more detailed analysis – we doubt that unemployment falls so much, brought the data indicates that the number of unemployed , according to the order calculation method excluded 990 thousand people, and it is the actually does not reduce the unemployed volume.

U.S. news set that will be presented this week is less meaningful and can hardly affect the market. These include non-manufacturing areas PMI index in April from ISM, it is expected to rise to 54.3 from 53.1, and the data on the U.S. foreign trade results in March, which may show the trade deficit reduction to 40.1 billion versus -42.3 billion previously. The most important political moment is the Fed chief D. Yellen’s speech.

Obviously, the trading week tone will set events in Europe as on the coming Thursday two authoritative European Central Banks - the Eurozone and Britain will announce the decision about their monetary policy prospects.