04, October 2013

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

The reality is that the U.S. dollar is currently out of favor, and while this is the case, the euro is doing everything possible to strengthen (strike while the iron is hot.)

The dollar fell heavily against most major currencies on Wednesday after the number of jobs in the private sector fell short of expectations and rekindled hope for the ultra-loose policy of the Federal Reserve before the end of the year. In the U.S. non-farm private sector jobs rose by a seasonally adjusted 166,000 in September, against expectations for an increase to 180,000. The July figure was revised up to 159,000 from 176,000, which put pressure on the dollar, while maintaining expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue to stimulate the economy purchasing assets for 85 billion on a monthly basis. These purchases may weaken the dollar, lowering interest rates to stimulate recovery.

Another news is shutdown of the U.S. government for second day in a row because of the inability of lawmakers to approve a package of spending. If the question is not resolved before Friday, the government shutdown would mean that the official employment report for September will not be published on Friday, and yesterday's ADP report will be the center of attention, and thus weakening of dollar will continue.