04, July 2013

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

Over the next three - six months the euro area is expected to demonstrate low economic performance, which may prompt ECB to continue easing down its policy. While ECB instills confidence in provision of continued support if it is required, a range of arguments suggest that there will be further aggravation to force it to act again.

US economic recovery and the possibility of shutting the FRS quantitative easing program down give investors a lot of reasons to buy the US dollar, while the reasons for buying the euro are running short.

This week’s political turmoil in Portugal reminded investors that the situation in Europe could still send shock waves across all markets. The tone of ECB President Mario Draghi’s press conference statements is expected to witness a bent to soft policy on Thursday. Meanwhile, the market seems to be determined to buy the dollar and sell other currencies of the Big Ten, even considering an average value of Friday's employment report of the US.