04, May 2016

Fundamental analysis

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

The USA published some minor reports: ISM New York and IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism indices (48,7 against the forecasted 46,6). We single out only one news that might be interesting: Dennis Lockhart’s speech (the Fed representative). According to Lockhart the price strengthening can be seen right now, but it is too early to decide whether this is sufficient to hike the rate. The decision regarding the rate hike will be taken at the next meeting in June.

Producer Price Index in Eurozone for March showed -4.2% (the forecast was -4.3%, the previous value was -4.2%). The index rose for the first time this the year. That is a signal that the inflation is unlikely to fall in the coming months.

On Tuesday, the pound decreased from its four months high when the UK manufacturing activity fell in April for the first time over the past three years (49.2 from 51.0 in March, vs the forecasted 51.2). The published index increased concerns about the prospects for growth in the second quarter.

Bank of Japan did not work on Tuesday amid the celebration of the Constitution Day.