02, July 2014

EUR/USD Fundamental analysis

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

The first half of the week the EUR/USD consolidated near the 37th figure. The published macroeconomic statistics from the EU and the U.S. gave the "bulls" minimal support for the euro - the unemployment rate in the euro zone in May fell by 0.1%, while the ISM manufacturing index in the United States came out slightly worse than it was forecasted.

This moderately positive background has not allowed "bears" to significantly push down the euro. The GBP/USD started a new trading week with a strong price growth. The positive report on the manufacturing sector PMI index despite the moderate negative internal conjuncture was better than the consensus forecast which confirms the BoE positive expectations on economic growth in the second quarter.

The similar report from the U.S. manufacturing sector, on the contrary showed a decline of 0.1% and this positive background allowed the British currency to strengthen its position against the American competitor by 0.25%. After a technical correction in the global stock markets the "bulls" rushed to the stock exchange again. The U.S. benchmark S&P500 set a fresh historic high mark once again, despite the moderate manufacturing ISM index negative release. Against this positive background we observed the USD/JPY growth - after the decrease in quotations for 4 consecutive days the U.S. currency was able to offset some of the lost positions.