01, December 2014

Fundamental analysis

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

The OPEC summit was held- the oil production level remains the same despite the strong differences within the cartel. Against this background we saw a powerful "bearish rally" within the black gold - the WTI oil has fallen below $ 70 / barrel the first time for the last four years. The pair EUR/USD was under pressure after the last week three-day growth – the Spain and Germany inflation preliminary data did not please the traders with their positive releases. The ECB President Mario Draghi underlined that the monetary authorities are ready to increase incentives if necessary and asked his colleagues to carry out additional analysis. The oil quotations decrease with the negative internal background put some pressure on the euro.

The oil cartel decision sent the Brent quotes to the bottom that increased demand for the UK government bonds. The Gilts 10-year bond yields were at the level of 1.92% last Thursday that is the lowest level for the last 18 months. The UK inflation expectations are declining that puts pressure on the pound. Against this negative background, most of the Friday trades we observed the British pound sales and the trading day finished with decrease within the pair GBP/USD.

The traders continued to get rid of the US dollar within the pair USD/JPY as they were afraid of the Bank of Japan's comments about the negative yen devaluation impact on the household spending. The commodity goods sales lead to the dollar demand. The pair closed the last week with an increase.