01, August 2014

EUR/USD Fundamental analysis

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

The dollar index basket (USDX) set a fresh 2014 high at 81.54 on the back of the U.S. positive macroeconomic data.

The EUR/USD remained under pressure amid the positive U.S. GDP data for the 2nd quarter during the day. The index went significantly better forecasted medians of 4% qoq. We should note the significant personal consumption expenditures increase to the level of 2.5%. This releases point to the strong economic growth which created the foundation for the subsequent months.

The U.S. Fed meeting outcome brought no surprises and market participants took profits on the short positions, as the result the euro was able to regain some lost ground. The GBP/USD also remained under the pressure. The pound fully copied the euro trading dynamics because the UK published any significant macroeconomic releases. The FOMC meeting went as expected - the QE-3 program was decreased by $10 billion as 9 out of 10 committee members expressed the view that the current macroeconomic situation was not balanced enough to think about the monetary policy tightening.

Only Charles Plosser disagreed with this view, saying that the Fed turned a blind eye to the strong economic growth. The Japanese stock market, unlike its American and European colleagues shows an upward trend, storming the strong resistance levels. Together with the positive US GDP release for the 2nd 2014 quarter, we have witnessed the "bulls rally" on the USD/JPY.