01, February 2013

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

The euro continues growing on Thursday against fundamental data.

Retail sales in Germany showed a drop 1.7%, the forecast was 0.1%. The number of people out of work fell in January, the rate is 16,000. The rate of unemployment dropped from 6.8% to 6.9%. Now it is clear that lowering of unemployment rate won’t help if the economy doesn’t start growing. Industrial production in Japan rose 2.5% in December vs. forecast for 4.1% and fell 7.8% annually against drop for 5.6%.

As we expected US data was weaker than we thought; Personal spending grew 0.2%. Personal income increased by 2.6% against 0.8%, but the growth is due to dividend payouts amid fears of tax increase on dividends since January 2013. Initial Jobless Claims rose 368K against 350K.

The fact that various news agencies appeal to investors’ optimism mean that the market is ruled by the speculative forces that removes sellers’ stop losses. The stock markets continue falling.

The main news for today is US Nonfarm Payrolls. The forecast is 165K against 155K in December. We expect that the data will be as a result sells will be started.

At 19:00 GMT+4 ISM manufacturing index in January is to be published, forecast 50.6 against 50.7 in December.

The downward trend will be to bearish targets which are support lines on the H4 1.3548, 1.3518, and 1.3480.