Fundamental analytics

Gold is going down as stock indices rise

XAUUSD

During the Asian trading session, the gold price fell as stock indices recovered and demand for safe assets declined.

The main growth driver of the Asian stock market was the data on PMI of the Chinese manufacturing sector. Unexpectedly in March, the index recovered from a record low of 35.7 points to 52.0 points. Many investors did not expect such a rapid recovery of this index, but experts warn the market against excessive optimism. The second wave of the coronavirus pandemic and sharp decline in external demand will increase the pressure on the Chinese economy in April and subsequent months.

Despite the local decline, the precious metal still has a good opportunity for strengthening in the medium term. Demand for gold and other protective assets will remain strong until economic conditions stabilize and the global economy's prospects begin to improve, after a series of unprecedented stimulus measures by governments and Central Banks.

The economic calendar today will focus on the data of the CB Consumer Confidence Index. Experts expect a sharp decline in the index from 130.7 to 110.0 points.

On the chart the situation for the last day has not changed significantly. After an unsuccessful attempt to gain a foothold above the level of 1635.00, a sliding movement towards the level of 1590.00 is developing on the chart.

  • Resistance levels: 1635.00, 1680.00, 1700.00;                                                 

  • Support levels: 1590.00, 1545.00, 1515.00.

The main scenario is a decline to 1590.00 and the upward movement resumes.

Alternative scenario is the break-down of the resistance at 1635.00 and the rise towards 1680.00.

Fundamental background - moderately negative. Bearish signals are still dominating on the chart locally, so we consider the intraday instrument sales. It is worth looking for entry points near the level of 1635.00. 

 

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