Fundamental analytics

Gold grows on the escalation of trade relations between the United States and China


On Monday gold trading ended with steady growth, having strengthened by more than 1%, against the background of another aggravation of trade relations between the USA and China.

On Monday, the trade conflict took the path of aggravation, after China threatened the United States with an increase in duties on American goods worth more than $ 60 billion. In response to these threats, the White House announced that in the summer it could raise duties on Chinese imports totaling $ 300 billion to 25%. Later, Donald Trump warned China against retaliatory action, threatening to further escalate the conflict.

Obviously, if all threats are realized, the costs for consumers and companies in both countries will increase, which can significantly slow down economic growth in the United States and China, as well as in other countries of the world.

Stock pads responded to claims from both sides with a sharp decline. The Nasdaq sank 3.14%, showing the strongest decline this year. Dow Jones lost 2.38% of its value, the S & P 500 dipped 2.41%. Under these conditions, investors began to actively buy more reliable assets, such as gold, Japanese yen and Swiss francs, which retain value during periods of turbulence in financial markets.

Today, gold is showing a moderate decline, against the background of an upward correction in major stock indexes, but in case of a new escalation of the situation in world trade, gold may continue its growth.

In addition to geopolitical news, the news from Europe, where the indexes of the ZEW institute for Germany will be published, can have an impact on trading today.

From consolidation between the levels of 1279.50-1287.50 the price went up, overcame the level of 1294.00 without any problems. This is a serious attempt of buyers for the further continuation of the upward movement in the direction of the level of 1310.00. But we should expect the formation of a new bull wave only after the completion of the recoil movement, the main target for which is the level 1294.00.

Resistance Levels: 1301.00, 1310.00, 1350.00;

Support levels: 1294.00, 1284.00, 1279.50.

The main scenario - a correction to 1294.00 and the resumption of the upward movement.

An alternative scenario - fixing below 1294.00 and a decline to 1287.50.

A positive news background locally prevails in the market, which contributes to the further development of the upward movement on the price chart. Therefore, intraday should consider buying that can be searched at 1294.00.