Fundamental analytics

Gold climbs up steadily due to falling USD and US Treasury yields


During the Asian trading session gold was trading in a very narrow range, holding close to yesterday's intraday highs. The dynamics of the dollar index and the yield on US Treasury bonds had a positive impact on the price.


The 10-year Treasury bond yield index declined from a ten-month high of 1.186 to 1.121, which weakened the US dollar. These factors always have a positive impact on the precious metal, which is quoted in the US currency.


In the middle of the week, the main attention of investors is focused on the speeches of the FRS representatives and comments on the further policy of the Fed. Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Eric Rosengren said that in the second half of the year the economy may show good growth, but the Fed's monetary policy will remain soft. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard also denied rumors that the regulator may soon tighten monetary policy and weaken the asset repurchase program. Today some more Fed officials will speak, and tomorrow Jerome Powell will take part in an online conference. In general, all representatives of the FRS still adhere to general statements about the need to maintain a soft monetary policy and the current volumes of the asset repurchase program. This is a good signal for gold.


Today, the US Congress will consider the impeachment of President Trump, whom Democrats have accused of inciting the storming of the Capitol last week. Earlier, Vice President Michael Pence rejected the Democratic proposal to take advantage of the 25th amendment to the constitution and remove Trump from power.


In the economic calendar, it is worth paying attention to the speech of the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde at an online conference at 09:00 (GMT) and the publication of data on the US consumer price index for December at 13:30 (GMT).


Buyers are increasing pressure to the level of 1862.00. Today we are waiting for the breakdown of this mark and the development of the upward movement in the direction of the level of 1890.00.


· Resistance levels: 1862.00, 1890.00, 1915.00.


· Support levels: 1824.00, 1810.00, 1780.00.


The main scenario is a breakdown of resistance at 1862.00 and growth in the direction of 1890.00.


Alternative scenario - a rebound from the level of 1862.00 and a decline to 1824.00


The current fundamental outlook is moderately positive. We consider longs on a pullback to 1853.00.


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