Fundamental analytics

Uncertainty ahead of ECB meeting helps gold hold current position

XAUUSD

Gold is trading in a narrow range against the backdrop of uncertainty before the ECB meeting at which the regulator is likely to decide on a significant easing of monetary policy. At the same time, pressure on precious metals put positive news about trade relations between the US and China.

The day before, Donald Trump announced his decision to postpone the introduction of duties on Chinese imports from October 1 to October 15. This decision was made after the Chinese authorities published a list of American goods for which duties will not increase since September 17. Thus, the parties demonstrate mutual concessions before a new round of trade negotiations, which are due to take place next month. This news increases investor interest in risky assets. Major stock indexes are trading in the green zone, while demand for defensive assets continues to decline.

Most likely, the ECB decision on interest rates and comments by Mario Draghi will have the most powerful influence on the course of trading today. But it is also worth paying attention to the publication of a report on inflation in the United States, which may affect the expectations of investors regarding possible decisions by the Fed to adjust the parameters of monetary policy this month.

On the chart, the bulls managed to keep the price above 1485.00, which is a good signal for the formation of a reversal and the development of the upward movement in the direction of the levels of 1504.00 and 1523.00.

Resistance Levels: 1504.00, 1523.00, 1555.00;

Support Levels: 1485.00, 1455.00, 1430.00.

The main scenario is an increase in the direction of the level of 1523.00.

An alternative scenario is the breakdown of support at 1485.00 and the development of the medium-term downward movement to 1455.00.

A moderately negative fundamental background remains on the market, but bullish signals still prevail on the chart. Therefore, in the short term we give priority to longs that are worth looking for near the level of 1485.00.

 

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