On Wednesday, gold managed to maintain the upward momentum, thanks to support from the dollar and the positive influence of economic and geopolitical news, which were presented on the market yesterday.
Inflation data for March had a negative impact on the dollar. According to the report, the basic consumer price index (g / g) fell from 2.1% to 2.0%. The change in the base figure compared with the previous month was 0.1%, against the expected growth rate of 0.2%.
According to the minutes of the March meeting of the FOMC published yesterday, low inflation is one of the main reasons why the regulator revised its plans for the implementation of monetary policy for 2019. At the March meeting, Fed officials signaled that there was no reason to raise or lower interest rates this year. At the beginning of the year, Jerome Powell announced the possibility of two rate increases until the end of 2019.
Today, gold shows a moderate correctional decline, after a fairly steady growth over the course of three trading days in a row. The main events affecting the trades are previously published data on inflation in China, as well as statements by US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin regarding the interim results of trade negotiations.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the consumer price index (y / y) rose 2.3% in March, after rising 1.5% in February.
In an interview with CNBC, Stephen Mnuchin said that the United States and China were able to agree on one of the key issues of the trade agreement - to determine the mechanism for ensuring the implementation of the agreement, within which a special agency will be created that will resolve all disputed issues. At the same time, many experts noted the fact that the question of the abolition of previously imposed duties by the United States and China remained unsolved, which in general could seriously slow down the negotiation process.
Later today, the publication of the producer price index in the United States and the FOMC representatives are expected.
On the chart, the situation develops within the framework of the main scenario - after a small rollback to the area of 1300.00, the instrument resumed its upward movement and yesterday tested the intermediate resistance level of 1310.00, from which the corrective movement is now developing. Locally, the priority remains with the further development of the bull wave, so at 1302.50 we are waiting for the completion of the correctional wave and the resumption of the upward movement.
Resistance Levels: 1310.00, 1317.00, 1325.00;
Support levels: 1302.50, 1300.00, 1296.50.
The main scenario - a correction to 1302.50 and an increase to 1317.00.
An alternative scenario - the breakdown of support 1302.50 and a decline in the range of 1296.50-1300.00.
The market maintains a positive news background, which contributes to the further development of the upward movement. Therefore, within the day, we give priority to longs that are worth looking for near the 1302.50 level.