Fundamental analytics

GOLD: the market is waiting for the publication of Non-Farm Payrolls

XAUUSD

On Thursday, there was a very restrained trading dynamics on the market. Financial exchanges in the United States were closed due to the celebration of Independence Day, which is the main reason for the development of the flat movement in the main financial instruments, including gold.

Today, volatility is gradually returning to the market, but many investors are cautious before a monthly report on the US labor market will be published today. Traders will evaluate the published statistics primarily through the prism of possible influence on the Fed's decision on the adjustment of the basic parameters of monetary policy. Recently, weaker employment data has been published in the US, so if the current report confirms the continuation of this trend, the market’s expectations for a possible reduction in interest rates at the July FOMC meeting will increase significantly, which could trigger a strong growth for gold.

A report published on Wednesday from ADP increases the likelihood that the actual figure today will be worse than experts' forecasts. Recall that, according to ADP, the actual growth in the number of employed was 102 thousand, with a forecast of 140 thousand. Today, the forecast is 160 thousand.

Also pay much attention to the data on the growth rate of the average wage. Since March, the annual indicator has been falling, which indirectly indicates a further decrease in inflationary pressure in the United States.

On the graph for the last day the situation has not changed fundamentally. In the medium term, the bullish trend, within the framework of which we can expect an update of the annual maximum, around the level of 1438.00, remains relevant. Locally also bullish signals prevail. At the moment, buyers do not allow the price go below the mark of 1412.00, from which we can expect the resumption of upward movement.

Resistance Levels: 1426.00, 1436.00, 1445.00;

Levels of support: 1412.00, 1403.00, 1383.00.

The main scenario - growth in the direction of 1438.00.

An alternative scenario - a breakdown of local support at 1412.00 and a decline to 1403.00.

Today, the main influence on the dynamics of the market will have statistics on the US labor market. Predicting the market response to this publication is quite difficult. Therefore, we recommend today to refrain from trading.

 

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