Fundamental analytics

Oil prices decline despite the upcoming trade agreement between US and China

WTI

On Tuesday, oil prices remain in the low area set on Monday. At the same time, the fundamental background is gradually changing in a positive direction, which may contribute to the development of an upward corrective movement.

 

The market is still focused on the situation in the Middle East. Traders are closely following the protests in Tehran, where protesters demand the resignation of Iran’s spiritual leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

 

A strong support factor for the oil market could be the signing of a trade agreement between the US and China. The parties are expected to sign the agreement on Wednesday, January 15th. Recently, the US trade representative stated that the trade agreement has already been fully translated into Chinese. Investors hope that the agreement will contribute to increased demand for energy.

 

There are no positive signals on the chart yet. Now the price for WTI is below 57.80, which is a signal of further downward movement towards the target of 56.70. The correctional movement can be expected after the price fixation above the level of57.80.

 

· Resistance levels: 58.50 60.00, 62.50;

 

· Support levels: 57.80, 56.70, 55.05.

 

The main scenario - a decline towards 56.70.

 

An alternative scenario - a consolidation above the level of 57.80 and growth towards 59.00.

 

The fundamental outlook is moderately positive. There are no reversal signals on the chart yet, therefore, we prioritize shorts from the level of 59.00.