Fundamental analytics

Oil Prices Increase Despite the Negative API Data

WTI

Despite the presence of a large number of negative factors, the oil market is trading in the green zone on Wednesday. Since the beginning of the day, Brent has risen in price by 1%, WTI by almost + 4%. Investors hope that the meeting of OPEC + countries will end with the signing of a new agreement to limit production. But experts caution bidders against excessive optimism, since stabilization of the market situation will require a very strong reduction in production volumes, for which OPEC countries may not be ready.

 

Recently, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that in 2020, US oil production will decline by 0.47 million barrels per day, while energy demand will fall by 1.3 million barrels.

 

American Petroleum Institute (API) has published recent data on changes in oil reserves. According to their report for the week, the level of reserves increased by 11.9 million barrels. Due to the quarantine measures introduced, the demand for fuel decreased heavily and gasoline inventories grew by 9.4 million barrels per week. This is the strongest growth of this indicator since January 2017.

 

Today, the US Department of Energy's weekly stockpile report will be the focus of the market. An increase of 9.27 million barrels is expected.

 

This week, trades are held in the horizontal channel of 26.90-30.30. Most likely, until the announcement of the results of the OPEC + meeting, the price will remain in this range.

 

· Resistance levels: 30.30, 33.75, 35.70.

 

· Support levels: 26.90, 25.75, 23.20.

 

The main scenario - consolidation in the channel of 26.90-30.30.

 

An alternative scenario - a false breakdown of the level of 30.30 and an increase towards 33.75.

 

The fundamental outlook is neutral. Regarding the chart, a flat is developing. In the short term, we suggest market entry points at the borders of the channel of 26.90-30.30.

 

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