Fundamental analytics

Oil prices are falling at the prospect of the OPEC meeting results


Oil prices are declining in anticipation of the OPEC meeting results, which will begin today. According to Reuters, yesterday Russia and Saudi Arabia could not agree on the issue of reducing quotas for oil production. Agency sources report that Russia agrees only to extend existing production quotas until the end of the 2nd quarter. This will not be enough to stabilize the market situation in the face of falling energy demand due to a slowdown in the global economy. Therefore, the further medium-term vector of the movement of oil prices will directly depend on the decisions that will be taken at the OPEC+ meeting. So far, the forecast is pessimistic.

The OPEC meeting pushed the industry statistics data from the US to the background.

Oil reserves in the country for the reporting week increased by 0.785 million barrels, with a forecast of +2.644 million barrels.


Regarding the chart, the sidewall of 46.65-48.40 remains relevant. At the same time, bears are gradually increasing pressure at the level of 46.65, increasing the likelihood of the price coming out of the consolidation and decreasing.


·         Resistance levels: 48.40, 50.20, 52.00.


·         Support levels: 46.65, 45.15, 43.75.


The main scenario - a breakdown of support at the level of 46.65 and a decline towards 45.15.


An alternative scenario - a consolidation in the range of 46.65-48.40.


The fundamental outlook is negative. We consider shorts from the level of 47.35.


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