Data on US oil inventories released on Wednesday supported oil prices. Growth continues on Thursday.
According to EIA data for the reporting week, the level of oil reserves fell by almost 2 million barrels. per day, while experts predicted an increase of 1.6 million barrels. During the same period, stocks of distillates, including diesel and aviation fuel, decreased.
Despite local growth, the overall fundamental background on the market remains mixed. Reports on the spread of the pandemic and an increase in production from OPEC continue to have a strong restraining effect on the price. In September, compared with August, production in the OPEC countries increased by 0.16 million barrels per day. The increase in production occurred due to resumed supplies from Libya and an increase in production from Iran.
ANZ Research reports production in excess of the established quotas in Russia. A further increase in production may lead to an increase in the imbalance in the market. According to the latest forecasts of experts, published by Reuters, the reduction in global demand in 2020 is projected at 8-9.8 million barrels per day. At the same time, experts have lowered their forecast for oil prices. The average Brent price is expected to be $ 42.48 this year, up from $ 42.75 earlier. The average price level for WTI is forecasted at $ 38.7, against $ 38.82 earlier.
On the chart, we note a strong and sharp rebound in the price from the resistance at 40.50. During the day, we expect the downtrend to prevail with targets at 39.50 and 38.60.
· Resistance levels: 40.50, 41.40, 42.10.
· Support levels: 39.50, 38.60, 37.30.
The main scenario - a decline to 39.50.
An alternative scenario - a breakdown of resistance at 40.50 and an increase to 41.40.
The current fundamental outlook is neutral. We consider shorts from the level of 40.50.